Friday, August 14, 2020

Grim Guesses, Revisited

The original, from April 22, is here. 

"I think that the true net death rate for coronavirus in an adequately supplied care environment, when we finally compare excess mortality to serology, will be around 1%, no more than 2%"

What's the death rateThe WHO's August estimate is 0.5-1%.

"I think the current fatalities are at least twice and maybe three times what is reported (looking at excess mortality). That's 95,000 deaths as of today. If our terrible healthcare system has a CFR of 2%, that's 4.7 million cases already- ONLY, I will note, 5x as many as reported. Most epidemiologists estimate that we are under counting by a factor between 10 and 40. "

What's the real number? Excess mortality as of August 13 is over 200,000 deaths. We're currently under counting by about 20%; earlier, like in NY, more were missed. Probably not undercounted by half now! But even the CDC thinks we've undercounted cases about 10x. 

I'm not even going to post new commentary for these: 

"I think over half the nursing homes and prisons will have outbreaks and tens of thousands of these vulnerable populations will die."

"I think there will be an absolute minimum of 200,000 confirmed covid deaths, and it will be closer to half a million in reality (US alone, that is.)"

"I think colleges and schools may not open in the fall and many colleges will have severe financial difficulties."

"I think that most states won't have the political will to keep stuff closed through August and will have large outbreaks soon.  (6/8: Ta da!!)"

"I think that some of the places (like NZ) that have done the best containment are screwed in the absence of widespread testing - even worse off than NYC- because the moment anything reopens it will spread very fast. If nothing is happening now to prepare for that, they're just making people suffer..."

Well? I was wrong about NZ, though even they now have untraceable community transmission, which is Very Bad (means it was circulating undetected this whole time, probably). Everywhere else is, in fact, having outbreaks as soon as people mingle, though of course compared to our dumpster fire it looks like a rounding error.

"I think the US outbreak is un-containable, that a safe and highly effective vaccine will not arrive in time, and that we will see both seasonal transmission and domestic animal reservoirs"

Good news! No evidence of animal reservoirs (yet.)  Bad news: it was uncontained, and now it's uncontainable.


  1. Yep. I like that you revisited your prediction post. You should definitely write a new prediction post for the next 6 months!

    1. It would just read OH GOD FFS WHAT IS WRONG WITH EVERYONE


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