tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36650952.post1082854400395932416..comments2024-03-27T10:29:06.518-04:00Comments on A Natural Scientist: In which I am - fair warning- exceedingly pessimisticJenny F. Scientisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07072624674603337551noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36650952.post-17172707719811495082021-10-14T16:51:26.839-04:002021-10-14T16:51:26.839-04:00And! The NNT (to prevent one hospitalization) is 1...And! The NNT (to prevent one hospitalization) is 14 in a population 5-10 times as likely as the general public to need hospitalization. You would generally expect the NNT in the general population to be disproportionate...<br />This is not a miracle drug. It will cost a bare minimum of $45,000 of this drug to prevent one hospitalization in the general population.Jenny F. Scientisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07072624674603337551noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36650952.post-4915544118364184722021-10-14T14:42:56.725-04:002021-10-14T14:42:56.725-04:00I mean, there's molnupiravir: https://www.natu...I mean, there's molnupiravir: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02783-1. I especially like how it causes the virus to mutate itself to extinction. WHAT COULD GO WRONG?! Though, short periods of treatment will probably be fine. Humans are around carcinogens constantly.Nicolehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03276995787173932700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36650952.post-50746712602259203182021-10-14T13:13:50.882-04:002021-10-14T13:13:50.882-04:00I am waiting for my youngest to be vaccinated. Alt...I am waiting for my youngest to be vaccinated. Although the data you showed the other day and the data in the recent NYTimes article showing that unvaccinated 5-10 year olds are significantly less likely to be hospitalized than vaccinated 70 year olds make me wonder if I should see it through (meaning keep minimizing our activities until vaccination) or not. But I will. Everyone else in my family was vaccinated at the first opportunity. My partner has had the booster already. Once the youngest is vaccinated, I may feel that we've done all we can to protect ourselves and loosen up a bit. That said, I plan to keep wearing a mask in crowded areas. I don't know if I'll ever fly without one again. I'll keep the kids wearing masks at school until caseloads in my area are down significantly (down to what? I don't know). Life is never going back to exactly the way it was. Which is OK. But I do hope to be eating in restaurants again in the spring. Lisanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36650952.post-19689853495475434102021-10-14T00:29:24.633-04:002021-10-14T00:29:24.633-04:00Yes, that is definitely what it feels like.Yes, that is definitely what it feels like.Socal Dendritenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36650952.post-35510278366276016332021-10-13T15:52:07.728-04:002021-10-13T15:52:07.728-04:00You can already get them on the same day! I'm...You can already get them on the same day! I'm sure 'just mixed together' is next. That was always a stupid rule, because, you know, we don't get any OTHER vaccines together, right???Jenny F. Scientisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07072624674603337551noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36650952.post-1996047749247821932021-10-13T15:23:52.997-04:002021-10-13T15:23:52.997-04:00Ugh I try not to think too much about this and jus...Ugh I try not to think too much about this and just focus on what I can control which is just me. We'll see when I stop wearing a mask but it's not anytime soon. But I do like that Novavax is testing combining covid vaxx with the flu shot and getting good results. Since I annually get my flu vaxx I like the idea of my routine not necessarily changing and just being able to get a two in one. Caitlynhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10053961373330984578noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36650952.post-52241932926850669242021-10-13T13:17:22.948-04:002021-10-13T13:17:22.948-04:00I think many people feel like, once everyone, or a...I think many people feel like, once everyone, or at least school aged children, *can* be vaccinated, maybe we're all gonna give up.Jenny F. Scientisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07072624674603337551noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36650952.post-2077002961937521222021-10-13T13:16:27.022-04:002021-10-13T13:16:27.022-04:00Right? We can hope for a miracle antiviral for co...Right? We can hope for a miracle antiviral for coronaviruses in general, BUT... I'm not gonna hold my breath.Jenny F. Scientisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07072624674603337551noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36650952.post-42516529820923675022021-10-13T13:15:41.089-04:002021-10-13T13:15:41.089-04:00That's basically what it boils down to for me:...That's basically what it boils down to for me: at some point, you know, if people didn't choose to be vaccinated then I don't see why I should have to mitigate for them FOREVER. <br /><br />I think vaccines and recovery *will* take it down some, just not enough!Jenny F. Scientisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07072624674603337551noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36650952.post-41216962162662114132021-10-13T02:51:21.163-04:002021-10-13T02:51:21.163-04:00I don't think this is exceedingly pessimistic....I don't think this is exceedingly pessimistic. <br /><br />Especially the "what exactly are we waiting for?". It's not going to get much better than now. (With the possible exception of someone finding a miracly drug to quickly and efficiently treat COVID patients. Oh, I just found some optimism!)Schlupphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16399256701731431557noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36650952.post-12677088547158018562021-10-12T18:34:35.937-04:002021-10-12T18:34:35.937-04:00After raging covid 19 where about 7% of the studen...After raging covid 19 where about 7% of the student body in our district has reported having covid since mid-August (so not including everyone who got it last year), we've had over a week of single digit reports for the entire district. I'm hopeful that a combination of vaccines and natural immunity will tamp the spread down in the longer term. Still waiting for DC2 to get vaccinated before sending her back, though if these low numbers keep up...<br /><br />After several weeks in the multiple hundreds range, we're back down to double digits for the county as well. Now, some of that could be under-reporting because the uni isn't doing required testing anymore. <br /><br />That said, my (uni) class this morning sounded like a flu ward. Constant wet sneezes, sniffles, and coughs, mostly sneezes and sniffles. One woman would not keep her mask on. They can zoom in if they're sick, but they're choosing not to. Do they have covid? Do they have flu? I'm not allowed to ask!<br /><br />It's sad that once DC2 is vaccinated I will probably show as much care for the 0-4 year olds as other groups are showing for my 9 year old. Which is to say only when reminded. <br /><br />We get flu shots every year, I assume they'll be bundled with covid boosters at some point. At what point does a person become selfish and just throw up their hands about everyone else?nicoleandmaggiehttp://nicoleandmaggie.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36650952.post-19759350124476006202021-10-12T16:52:13.828-04:002021-10-12T16:52:13.828-04:00Here in CA, I think vaccine availability for 5+ y...Here in CA, I think vaccine availability for 5+ yr olds will make a difference. Not necessarily that there will be huge uptake (though certainly more than in many places) but at that point all families with school-aged children will have the choice to get all family members vaccinated if they wish. I am also hopeful that getting through the winter will make a difference. While I 100% agree with the masking and testing we have in place in schools now (and I am grateful that my workplace has mandatory vaccination), I don't think we should keep doing it forever.Socal Dendritenoreply@blogger.com